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Cycles: The Sun, Life & Economics


By Aves Hawk


If you decide to educate yourself and follow your intuition you'll notice certain patterns and recurring themes. Well, at least that's what happened to me. Basically, three important points that have been drilled into me are that everything is connected, everything is a cycle, and there's nothing new under the sun.


Take the global warming/cooling cycle for example. The sun controls our climate. The amount of sun spot activity and solar wind affect the amount of radiation emitted from the sun and funny enough the amount of radiation hitting the Earth as well. There is a mountain of literature and information that has connected amount of radiation from the sun with global temperature changes. Look for a movie called 'The Great Global Warming Swindle'. Some of you might know that throughout the 1900s, our Governments periodically switched from promoting global cooling or global warming; this is because it is a cycle.



Have a look at this first chart. Now who would've thought that the sun drives climate and not humans via carbon emissions? Maybe all those sun worshipping civilizations were onto something?



This chart shows where we are in the near-term. Funny how since about 2000 the sun spot activity has decreased and proper temperature measurements have as well. You should all be familiar with Climategate by now. The other funny point is that CO2 increases as a result of warmer temperatures. I really recommend that movie if you want the details.


Another cycle is life. We are born, we grow, we peak, we decline, and we die. This is also known as the seasons; spring, summer, fall, winter. The really interesting part is that economies and civilizations go through this same cycle and it usually takes around 200 years. Your investment and business decisions can really benefit from understanding the big picture. This chart shows that hard assets (gold,energy, food) perform well during summer and winter while paper assets (stocks, bonds, real estate) perform well during spring and fall. According to cycle work, we are about halfway into winter and are still awaiting the worst of it. However, many cycle analysts think we are entering a deflationary depression. This is true only to the point that credit deflation outperforms the Government's inflation of the money supply. Hyperinflation is what ensues with too much intervention.



Nikolai Kondratieff pioneered the study of cycles in economics. Here's an interview with Ian Gordon, founder of the Longwave Group. They are more or less picking up where Kondratieff left off. Look at this chart to see how this cycle has played out over time. And look at where things are headed.



Martin Armstrong has taken Kondratieff's work and developed an economic confidence model. According to his work, 2011.45 is the next turning point. That is 0.45 x 365, which is the 164th day of 2011 or May 12th (correction: June 13th). I'll be watching in May (correction: June)to see if there is a change in overall market sentiment and how accurate his model is.



Now another really neat cycle that sort of brings the sun together with Kondratieff's economic sycle, is the Mayan Calendar. Here is a post and a website on the Mayan Calendar and its relation to the Kondratieff cycle. According to the work of these far-thinking scientists, the Kondratieff cycle is part of a bigger cycle that is affected by the cosmos (sun, moon, starts, Earth's position, etc.). Most people think this is crazy but if you take the time to look at their evidence, it is accurate. Both the Mayan Calendar and the Kondratieff cycle can be and have been used to predict major coming events.


Another interesting point is that a variety of different perspectives are all indicating that we are near the end of of this credit expansion, and close to a fairly major turning point in how the majority perceives reality. You can look at Austrian Economics, the Daily Bell, Dollar Vigilante, FOFOA, GATA, contrarians, gold bugs, cycle analysts, industry insiders; all of them point in the hard asset direction. All of them are pointing towards a repeat of this cycle. The year 2000 marked the turn of the Kondratieff cycle where real assets outperform paper assets. Previous to that, the year 1982 marked the the end of the previous commodity boom and the beginning of the equities boom. It's really uncanny how everything is related and works in cycles.


This brings me to my last point. The more you learn, the more you realize your own ignorance about all of the things you know you don't know anything about. The more you learn, the more you realize nothing is new. Where you have gone somebody else has already been. History repeats itself. Life is a cycle. Everything is a cycle. It is your job to make to be aware of the trends and position yourself accordingly. 

“What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun.” - Ecclesiastes 1:9

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